10:26 PM
John Ray
As important as the Fantasy Draft is, it needs to be treated way differently than the actual NFL Draft. Owners need to make selections not based on how good a rookie player might eventually be, but rather on the likelihood that the selected player will succeed in the following season. This means a variety of different factors must be taken into account, including the team’s system, the player’s ability to contribute right away, and the team’s competition at that position.
Considering that many of the biggest impact players come from latter rounds, position in the previous spring’s draft can be overemphasized, as can a player’s college production and reputation. In short, there are a lot of variables and it’s easy to go wrong. Here are some players to be wary of taking, especially initially.
Sam Bradford, Quarterback, St. Louis Rams- Drafting Bradford looks like a lose-lose proposition. He has not been officially given the starting spot yet but it may be a bad thing if he were. As good as Bradford is, the Rams are a moribund franchise trying to find their way and won’t be able to offer Bradford much help in terms of personnel. As talented as he is, it would be difficult to deal with all the nuances of becoming a starting quarterback in the NFL in addition to having a sub-par offensive line. The Rams have a standout running back in Steven Jackson but no considerable vertical threats to speak of; Donnie Avery just doesn’t seem capable of being a number one option. Bradford should eventually be a great player in the NFL but will need at least a year to adjust to the talent deficiency around him. If you’re looking at drafting him, make sure it’s so he can be your backup.
Tim Tebow, Quarterback, Denver Broncos- As great as Tebow was in college, he faces a steep learning curve in the NFL. I personally believe his outstanding work ethic and great natural talent will result in a productive career but it will take a while to get there. Having played in the spread option offense at Florida, Tebow will need to adjust to taking snaps under center and continue retooling his footwork and throwing motion. Another reason to avoid drafting Tebow until late is that his playing time is still a major wild card. The Broncos have great depth at the position with Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn and although Tebow is the quarterback of the future, it’s uncertain when the Tebow Era will begin in Denver. The only reason to draft Tebow late in a fantasy draft is that his ability as a power runner may get him carries in the red zone and on third and short. It’s important for fantasy owners to not get too caught up in his college exploits.
C.J. Spiller, Running Back, Buffalo Bills- Although Spiller will have some impact as a rookie, ignore all those sites that say he’s one of the top two rookie fantasy football options. Spiller will be playing for a team in Buffalo that is very limited. None of their potential quarterbacks have done much at the NFL level and there is a definite worry that too much responsibility will be placed on Spiller in his rookie year. He is indeed a tremendous talent with game-breaking skills but is undersized for a running back and capable of getting hurt if Buffalo doesn’t pace him. It is yet to be seen what role Marshawn Lynch will have with the team but it would be good for Spiller if they share carries, at least initially. That way, Spiller can still contribute as a receiver and punt returner without having to take the punishment that 25 carries a game brings.
Demaryius Thomas, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos- This is another player whose long-term prospects are much better than those in the short-term. He is very talented but raw after playing for a college team that rarely threw the football. With Brandon Marshall gone, there may be too much pressure to reach his full potential right away. It will also be difficult to develop a rapport with his quarterback because it’s still unknown who Denver’s starter will be this year. With the uncertainty at wide receiver and quarterback, Denver may rely on their running back trio of Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, and JJ Arrington and in turn, throw the ball much less.
Are you ready for some Weekly Fantasy Football League action? Head over to www.fantasyfactor.com the home of Weekly Fantasy Football Leagues.
Considering that many of the biggest impact players come from latter rounds, position in the previous spring’s draft can be overemphasized, as can a player’s college production and reputation. In short, there are a lot of variables and it’s easy to go wrong. Here are some players to be wary of taking, especially initially.
Sam Bradford, Quarterback, St. Louis Rams- Drafting Bradford looks like a lose-lose proposition. He has not been officially given the starting spot yet but it may be a bad thing if he were. As good as Bradford is, the Rams are a moribund franchise trying to find their way and won’t be able to offer Bradford much help in terms of personnel. As talented as he is, it would be difficult to deal with all the nuances of becoming a starting quarterback in the NFL in addition to having a sub-par offensive line. The Rams have a standout running back in Steven Jackson but no considerable vertical threats to speak of; Donnie Avery just doesn’t seem capable of being a number one option. Bradford should eventually be a great player in the NFL but will need at least a year to adjust to the talent deficiency around him. If you’re looking at drafting him, make sure it’s so he can be your backup.
Tim Tebow, Quarterback, Denver Broncos- As great as Tebow was in college, he faces a steep learning curve in the NFL. I personally believe his outstanding work ethic and great natural talent will result in a productive career but it will take a while to get there. Having played in the spread option offense at Florida, Tebow will need to adjust to taking snaps under center and continue retooling his footwork and throwing motion. Another reason to avoid drafting Tebow until late is that his playing time is still a major wild card. The Broncos have great depth at the position with Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn and although Tebow is the quarterback of the future, it’s uncertain when the Tebow Era will begin in Denver. The only reason to draft Tebow late in a fantasy draft is that his ability as a power runner may get him carries in the red zone and on third and short. It’s important for fantasy owners to not get too caught up in his college exploits.
C.J. Spiller, Running Back, Buffalo Bills- Although Spiller will have some impact as a rookie, ignore all those sites that say he’s one of the top two rookie fantasy football options. Spiller will be playing for a team in Buffalo that is very limited. None of their potential quarterbacks have done much at the NFL level and there is a definite worry that too much responsibility will be placed on Spiller in his rookie year. He is indeed a tremendous talent with game-breaking skills but is undersized for a running back and capable of getting hurt if Buffalo doesn’t pace him. It is yet to be seen what role Marshawn Lynch will have with the team but it would be good for Spiller if they share carries, at least initially. That way, Spiller can still contribute as a receiver and punt returner without having to take the punishment that 25 carries a game brings.
Demaryius Thomas, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos- This is another player whose long-term prospects are much better than those in the short-term. He is very talented but raw after playing for a college team that rarely threw the football. With Brandon Marshall gone, there may be too much pressure to reach his full potential right away. It will also be difficult to develop a rapport with his quarterback because it’s still unknown who Denver’s starter will be this year. With the uncertainty at wide receiver and quarterback, Denver may rely on their running back trio of Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, and JJ Arrington and in turn, throw the ball much less.
Are you ready for some Weekly Fantasy Football League action? Head over to www.fantasyfactor.com the home of Weekly Fantasy Football Leagues.
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